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Artificial Intelligence, International Relations, Strategic Studies, and Nuclear strategy

Book manuscript in progress and under contract with Georgetown University Press.

Artificial Intelligence, Political Psychology, Strategic Studies, and Nuclear strategy

manuscript in progress.... contact me for details

Evolutionary Psychology, International Relations Theory, Political Psychology, Political Behavior, Public Opinion, Survey Research and Experiments, and Classical Realism

Cognitive Psychology, Social Psychology, International Relations, Political Psychology, Vietnam War, and 1 more

Publisher: OUP and Hurst & Co.

Publication Date: 2014

Evolutionary Psychology, Political Philosophy, International Relations Theory, International Security, Strategic Studies, and 1 more

Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan

Publication Date: Jun 2015

Media Studies and War Studies

Publication Date: 2007

Publication Name: International News Safety Institute

International Relations, NATO, and Strategic Studies

Publisher: Citeseer

Publication Date: Jan 1, 2003

Publication Name: NATO EAPC Fellowship Report

We argue that Artificial Intelligence will, in the very near future, have a profound impact on the conduct of strategy and will be hugely disruptive of existing power balances. To do so, we review current and evolving... more abstractWe argue that Artificial Intelligence will, in the very near future, have a profound impact on the conduct of strategy and will be hugely disruptive of existing power balances. To do so, we review current and evolving capabilities in ‘narrow’ AI that is optimised to perform in a particular environment, and explore its military potential across a range of operational and strategic activities. We then review the psychological foundations of strategy and explore the ways in which such AI will transform human decision-making. Lastly, we look ahead to the more distant prospect of a general AI.

Artificial Intelligence, Strategy (Military Science), International Relations, Strategic Studies, Artificial Neural Networks, and 1 more

Publication Name: Journal of Strategic Studies

Strategic Studies, Air Power History, and Military

Publication Date: 2014

Publication Name: RAF Air Power Review

Why do states persist in enduring, expensive conflicts when the costs seem so high, the potential benefits, at best, somewhat ambiguous? This article suggests that emotional psychology can provide some insights into t... more abstractWhy do states persist in enduring, expensive conflicts when the costs seem so high, the potential benefits, at best, somewhat ambiguous? This article suggests that emotional psychology can provide some insights into this problem. Decision-makers construct a vision of the future that is greatly informed by affect. How they feel in the present has a big impact on their conception of events and their decisions about them. The risks they are prepared to take, the desires they anticipate having in future, the lessons of the past they draw on—all are constructed under the influence of current emotions, and all may encourage the persistence of conflict beyond a point at which more dispassionate minds might desist. This theoretical argument is then illustrated with a discussion of US policy-making in the Vietnam War.

International Relations Theory, Political Psychology, and Vietnam War

Publication Date: Jun 2014

Publication Name: Cambridge Review of International Affairs

Military History, Social Psychology, and Strategic Studies

Al Qaeda has developed a coherent strategy for insurgent violence that has much in common with the focoism advocated by Che Guevara in the 1960s. In their strategic writing, explored here, key Islamist strategists str... more abstractAl Qaeda has developed a coherent strategy for insurgent violence that has much in common with the focoism advocated by Che Guevara in the 1960s. In their strategic writing, explored here, key Islamist strategists stress the role of violence in creating revolution, and describe the export of committed fighters to focoist enclaves at the margins of enemy control. In contrast to some prominent themes in recent scholarship, the article argues that physical space is demonstrably important to the revolutionaries, that their development of leaderless jihad is designed to supplement not replace territorial control, and that their violence is avowedly strategic.

Strategic Studies, Al Qaeda, and Focoism

Social Psychology, Strategic Studies, Social Influence, and Counterinsurgency

Propaganda is at the heart of the struggle between Al Qaeda's strain of militant Islamism and the governments of the United States and United Kingdom. In an ideological struggle, propaganda is critical in shaping outc... more abstractPropaganda is at the heart of the struggle between Al Qaeda's strain of militant Islamism and the governments of the United States and United Kingdom. In an ideological struggle, propaganda is critical in shaping outcomes. Both Al Qaeda and the U.S. and U.K. governments recognize this, and have devised propaganda strategies to construct and disseminate messages for key audiences. This article considers the key elements in the Al Qaeda propaganda narrative, and the means through which it is disseminated. On the other side, it assesses the U.S. and U.K. governments’ response, focusing particularly on the British effort to define and propagate a narrative centered on British values.

Propaganda, Ideology, and Islamism

Publisher: ingentaconnect.com

Publication Date: Jan 1, 2009

Publication Name: Studies in Conflict and Terrorism

Media Studies, War Studies, and Strategic Studies

Publication Date: Jan 1, 2008

Publication Name: Parameters

War Reporting and Media/ News Print Analysis: War in Iraq reporting

Publisher: Routledge

Publication Date: Jan 1, 2008

Publication Name: The RUSI Journal

Media Studies and War Studies

Publisher: carlisle-www.army.mil

Publication Date: Jan 1, 2005

Publication Name: Parameters

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

Publication Date: Jan 1, 2010

Publication Name: Defence Studies

Publication Date: Oct 2008

Publication Name: RUSI Journal, Vol. 153, No. 5

Publication Date: Aug 2002

Publication Name: RUSI Journal, Vol. 147, No. 4

In one of his more elliptical statements, Carl von Clausewitz argued that the defence is stronger than the attack. This in an era in which Napoleon’s Grand Armée swept all before it, including Clausewitz himself. Here... more abstractIn one of his more elliptical statements, Carl von Clausewitz argued that the defence is stronger than the attack. This in an era in which Napoleon’s Grand Armée swept all before it, including Clausewitz himself. Here, I argue that prospect theory offers a way of interpreting Clausewitz’s claim. In attempting an answer, I first link prospect theory to the endowment effect and sunk costs, as related ways of understanding our essential loss aversion. I connect the origins of this aversion to our evolutionary history. I then explore ideas of possession in war – including territory, and prestige, and show how challenges to these can constitute, in the mind of the strategist, a domain of losses, the defence of which warrants risk acceptance. Lastly, I explore some substantial methodological challenges in applying prospect theory to strategic affairs.

Presentation to DSD research colloquium, King's College London. March 2015

Evolutionary Psychology, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Studies

Publisher: University of Oxford

Publication Date: Jan 1, 1998

Publisher: PhD Thesis - University of Essex

Publication Date: Jan 1, 2003