King's College London

Research Associate, Centre for Science and Security Studies, War Studies

PhD, Commonwealth Scholar

Thesis Title: China's Nuclear Posture and Strategic First-Use: A Holistic Analysis

About

I successfully defended and passed my viva on 8 April 2011. My PhD thesis argues that despite China’s official declaration of no-first-use (NFU), there is a considerably weak firebreak in the country’s nuclear posture that is likely to promote strategic nuclear-first-use during crisis. The thesis arrives at this argument through holistic analysis. Holism is a deeply-established method of thinking in the Chinese tradition and continues to be relevant today. It encompasses the idea that all the properties of a given system cannot be determined or explained by its component parts alone. It also emphasises the connections between distinctions and even endeavours to transcend them altogether. However, the salience of holism as a method of analysing Chinese phenomena—including matters in the political, strategic and military realms—continues to be overlooked by the mainstream tendency to produce reductionist-type accounts. A reductionist-type approach cannot test whether China’s NFU policy is credible. This thesis contributes to scholarship by demonstrating that a holistic approach, in contrast, can. A state’s nuclear posture can be defined as the product of its nuclear doctrine and capabilities. The argument is grounded in a ‘holistic’ analysis of (1) the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) texts covering its strategic and operational nuclear doctrine, and (2) the nuclear and nuclear-related capabilities of the PLA Second Artillery, which operates the bulk of China’s strategic nuclear deterrent. The thesis demonstrates the existence of weak firebreaks in both Chinese doctrine and capabilities. It finds that China actually possesses a significantly weak NFU doctrine. Principally, the analysis of this thesis indicates that while China’s strategic planners genuinely believe that the imperative of their country’s nuclear posture is to uphold deterrence, the concepts and capabilities they believe will enhance deterrence are more likely to erode it. The thesis generates some general insights for U.S. nuclear policy in light of Chinese nuclear behaviour. It also identifies some avenues for further research.

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